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The second major problem is the uncertainty in data about individual and population-wide exposure due to the illegal markets. There is a scarcity of epidemiological studies of cannabis use by comparison with epidemiological studies of alcohol and tobacco use Due to both problems or in other words the large uncertainty in input data of exposure , we cannot calculate with point estimates.
To overcome this, we are using a probabilistic calculation methodology that takes the whole distribution of the input variables into account. For example, for the exposure a random sample of the number of days of annual drug use is combined with a random sample in the range of the usual dosages of the drug to provide an estimate for dosage. The downside of the probabilistic approach is that the output also is not a single numerical value but rather a likelihood distribution. Nevertheless, using graphical approaches Figs. Our approach contains some further limitations: Drug interactions cannot be taken into account as we just do not have any toxicological data on such effects e.
However, polydrug use in humans is common, especially of illicit drugs with ethanol or benzodiazepines Addiction potential and risk of use e. Aside from the limitations in data, our results should be treated carefully particularly in regard to dissemination to lay people. Such statements taken out of context may be misinterpreted, especially considering the differences of risks between individual and the whole population.
A main finding of our study is the qualitative validation of previous expert-based approaches on drug-ranking e. Nutt et al. Currently, the MOE results must be treated as preliminary due to the high uncertainty in data. The analyses may be refined when better dose-response data and exposure estimates become available. As the problem is multidimensional 15 , it would also make sense to establish some form of harm or risk matrix 64 that may be more suitable than a single indicator.
Currently, the MOE results point to risk management prioritization towards alcohol and tobacco rather than illicit drugs. The high MOE values of cannabis, which are in a low-risk range, suggest a strict legal regulatory approach rather than the current prohibition approach. The methodology for comparative quantitative risk assessment was based on a previous study conducted for compounds in alcoholic beverages 20 with the exception that probabilistic exposure estimation was conducted 65 , 66 , The MOE approach was used for risk assessment 18 , As none of these thresholds neither human data nor animal data was available for the illicit drugs, LD50 values from animal experiments were selected instead and extrapolated to BMDL.
The exposure was calculated for individual scenarios of daily drug use, as well as for population based scenarios using drug prevalence data and sewage analysis data for Europe, which is a promising complementary approach for estimating the drug use in the general population. Monte Carlo simulations were performed with , iterations using Latin Hypercube sampling and Mersenne Twister random number generator. The distribution functions and detailed calculation methodology is specified in Supplementary Tables S1—S2 online. All authors have been involved in the drafting of the article and the interpretation of the data and in critical revisions of the content.
All authors have given final approval of the version to be published. The views expressed here reflect only the author's and the European Union is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. The contents of this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the Ministry of Health and Long Term Care or of other funders. National Center for Biotechnology Information , U.
Sci Rep. Published online Jan Dirk W. Author information Article notes Copyright and License information Disclaimer. Received Sep 9; Accepted Jan 7. All rights reserved. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder in order to reproduce the material. This article has been cited by other articles in PMC. Abstract A comparative risk assessment of drugs including alcohol and tobacco using the margin of exposure MOE approach was conducted.
Social Relationships and Mortality Risk: A Meta-analytic Review
Results The only toxicological threshold available in the literature for all of the compounds under study was the LD Table 1 Toxicological thresholds selected for calculating the margin of exposure. Open in a separate window. Table 2 Exposure data selected for calculating the margin of exposure see Supplementary Table S1 online for distribution functions used for calculation.
Figure 1. Margin of exposure for daily drug use estimated using probabilistic analysis left red bar: average; error bar: standard deviation; right gray bar: tolerant user; circle symbol for alcohol : value based on human data. Figure 2. Margin of exposure for the whole population based on prevalence data estimated using probabilistic analysis left red bar: average; error bar: standard deviation; right gray bar: tolerant user; circle symbol for alcohol and cannabis : value based on human data.
Figure 3. Margin of exposure for the whole population based on sewage analysis estimated using probabilistic analysis left red bar: average; error bar: standard deviation; right gray bar: tolerant user; circle symbol for THC : value based on human. Discussion Many governments in Europe have favoured more restrictive policies with respect to illicit drugs than for alcohol or tobacco, on the grounds that they regard both illicit drug abuse and related problems as a significantly larger problem for society Methods The methodology for comparative quantitative risk assessment was based on a previous study conducted for compounds in alcoholic beverages 20 with the exception that probabilistic exposure estimation was conducted 65 , 66 , Author Contributions D.
References Coomber R. Assessing the real dangers of illicit drugs - Risk analysis as the way forward? Public Health , — Ranking the harm of alcohol, tobacco and illicit drugs for the individual and the population. Towards the Creation of an Illicit Drug Index. World drug report An index of fatal toxicity for drugs of misuse. Toward a comparative overview of dependence potential and acute toxicity of psychoactive substances used nonmedically.
Drug Alcohol Abuse 19 , — Comparison of acute lethal toxicity of commonly abused psychoactive substances. Addiction 99 , — Development of a rational scale to assess the harm of drugs of potential misuse. Lancet , — Drug harms in the UK: a multicriteria decision analysis. Harms and benefits associated with psychoactive drugs: findings of an international survey of active drug users. User perceptions of the benefits and harms of hallucinogenic drug use: A web-based questionnaire study. Substance Use 15 , — Drug classification: science, politics, both or neither?
Addiction , — Drugs and harm to society. Lancet , Basing drug scheduling decisions on scientific ranking of harmfulness: false promise from false premises. A new method for determining allowable daily intakes. In , the malware NotPetya spread from the servers of an unassuming Ukrainian software firm to some of the largest businesses worldwide, paralyzing their operations. British manufacturer Reckitt Benckiser owner of Lysol and Durex condoms.
Total damages from NotPetya, as estimated by the White House. His phone, too, began to explode with calls from ISSP clients who were either watching NotPetya tear across their networks or reading news of the attack and frantically seeking advice. A portion of one major Ukrainian transit hub, where ISSP had installed its equipment as a demonstration, was fully infected in 16 seconds.
Ukrenergo, the energy company whose network ISSP had been helping to rebuild after the blackout cyberattack, had also been struck yet again. Derevianko was driving north to meet his family at his village house for the holiday when the NotPetya calls began. Soon he had pulled off the highway and was working from a roadside restaurant. By the early afternoon, he was warning every executive who called to unplug their networks without hesitation, even if it meant shutting down their entire company.
It would hit at least four hospitals in Kiev alone, six power companies, two airports, more than 22 Ukrainian banks, ATMs and card payment systems in retailers and transport, and practically every federal agency. According to ISSP, at least companies were hit, and one senior Ukrainian government official estimated that 10 percent of all computers in the country were wiped.
The attack even shut down the computers used by scientists at the Chernobyl cleanup site, 60 miles north of Kiev. With no cash in his pockets, he eyed his gas gauge, wondering if he had enough fuel to reach his village. Across the country, Ukrainians were asking themselves similar questions: whether they had enough money for groceries and gas to last through the blitz, whether they would receive their paychecks and pensions, whether their prescriptions would be filled.
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Doc on a single computer. That gave NotPetya the only foothold it needed. The shipping terminal in Elizabeth, New Jersey—one of the 76 that make up the port-operations division of Maersk known as APM Terminals—sprawls out into Newark Bay on a man-made peninsula covering a full square mile. Tens of thousands of stacked, perfectly modular shipping containers cover its vast asphalt landscape, and foot-high blue cranes loom over the bay. On a good day, about 3, trucks arrive at the terminal, each assigned to pick up or drop off tens of thousands of pounds of everything from diapers to avocados to tractor parts.
The gate clerks had gone silent. Soon, hundreds of wheelers were backed up in a line that stretched for miles outside the terminal.
Many of the containers, known as reefers, were electrified and full of perishable goods that required refrigeration. In fact, it was a clusterfuck of clusterfucks. Gates were down. Cranes were frozen. Tens of thousands of trucks would be turned away from comatose terminals across the globe. Then his phone rang. When he answered, he found himself on a conference call with three Maersk staffers.
They told him to drop everything and go there. Two hours later, Jensen was on a plane to London, then in a car to an eight-story glass-and-brick building in central Maidenhead. Some Maersk staffers, Jensen learned, had been in the recovery center since Tuesday, when NotPetya first struck. Some had been sleeping in the office, under their desks or in corners of conference rooms.
Others seemed to be arriving every minute from other parts of the world, luggage in hand. Maersk had booked practically every hotel room within tens of miles, every bed-and-breakfast, every spare room above a pub. The Maidenhead recovery center was being managed by the consultancy Deloitte. Maersk had essentially given the UK firm a blank check to make its NotPetya problem go away, and at any given time as many as Deloitte staffers were stationed in the Maidenhead office, alongside up to Maersk personnel.
Instead, staffers had gone into every available electronics store in Maidenhead and bought up piles of new laptops and prepaid Wi-Fi hot spots.
Door-Busting Drug Raids Leave a Trail of Blood
Jensen, like hundreds of other Maersk IT staffers, was given one of those fresh laptops and told to do his job. After a frantic global search, the admins finally found one lone surviving domain controller in a remote office—in Ghana. At some point before NotPetya struck, a blackout had knocked the Ghanaian machine offline, and the computer remained disconnected from the network. When the tense engineers in Maidenhead set up a connection to the Ghana office, however, they found its bandwidth was so thin that it would take days to transmit the several-hundred-gigabyte domain controller backup to the UK.
Their next idea: put a Ghanaian staffer on the next plane to London. So the Maidenhead operation arranged for a kind of relay race: One staffer from the Ghana office flew to Nigeria to meet another Maersk employee in the airport to hand off the very precious hard drive.
But several days would pass after the initial outage before Maersk started taking orders through Maerskline. In the meantime, Maersk staffers worked with whatever tools were still available to them. They taped paper documents to shipping containers at APM ports and took orders via personal Gmail accounts, WhatsApp, and Excel spreadsheets. Back at the Copenhagen headquarters, a cafeteria in the basement of the building was turned into a reinstallation assembly line. A few days after his return from Maidenhead, Henrik Jensen found his laptop in an alphabetized pile of hundreds, its hard drive wiped, a clean image of Windows installed.
Everything that he and every other Maersk employee had stored locally on their machines, from notes to contacts to family photos, was gone. Members of the police team initially claimed that Mr. Betton fired first, but the state crime lab found no evidence that his gun had been discharged. A prosecutor cleared the officers, concluding that the shooting was justified. Because fewer than a third of tactical teams use body cameras , the police version of events like the killing of Eric John Senegal is often the only one. It was not cocked, but two deputies fired, hitting Mr.
Senegal three times, according to investigative reports. Another killed his charging pit bull. A grand jury declined to indict them, said District Attorney James R. But since the deputies were not equipped with cameras, there is no way to really know what happened, and the uncertainty has bred suspicion and litigation.
Crime scene photographs show Mr. Senegal splayed out on the floor, blood pooling near his head, the gun about three feet from his sneakers. Derrick Kee, a lawyer who has filed a lawsuit on behalf of Mr. Kee does not acknowledge that Mr. Senegal was dealing, but said it still would not justify his death. Some SWAT veterans find it confounding that many police agencies remain so devoted to dynamic entry. The tactic is far from universally embraced, and a number of departments have retired or restricted its use over the years, often after a bad experience.
The National Tactical Officers Association, which might be expected to mount the most ardent defense, has long called for using dynamic entry sparingly. If we are going to risk our lives, we risk them for a hostage, for a citizen, for a fellow officer. But officials with other law enforcement groups reject such absolutist approaches. Sheriff Champagne said his deputies looked for opportunities to detain suspects on the street or in cars. How many lives are saved because we got it off the street? Some of it, according to long-term observers, derives from the adrenalized, hypermasculine, militaristic ethos of SWAT.
This is how the news should sound. Twenty minutes a day, five days a week, hosted by Michael Barbaro and powered by New York Times journalism. Kraska, the criminologist. And instead of sitting around and waiting for something to happen twice or three times a year, you can go out and generate it.
That culture is reinforced by a cottage industry of tactical training contractors, many of them veterans of the Iraq or Afghanistan wars, who are hired by police departments to keep SWAT teams up to date. Another potential factor is the incentive sometimes provided by asset forfeiture laws when contraband or drug proceeds are found in a residence.
Revenue generated by those seizures typically reverts back to law enforcement agencies. In when the new law passed, search warrant executions accounted for 29 percent of all forfeitures, according to a state report. Boyack, whose libertarian-leaning group advocated for the restriction. The Obama administration ended that requirement after a larger review of the so-called program, which was prompted by the police response to the civil unrest in Ferguson, Mo.
President Trump has yet to act on a campaign pledge to rescind an executive order signed by President Barack Obama in that limited the kinds of equipment offered by the government. It is unclear whether he would reinstate the one-year rule. Elsewhere in the house, the agents came upon Mr. They did not find her other son, year-old Wanis, who no longer lived there but dropped by at times. Nor did they find guns or drugs beyond some meth residue in a glass pipe. Later that night, deputies arrested Wanis at another address.
The Phonesavanhs had already suffered their share of misfortune. They drove to Georgia when Mr. Seven weeks later, after struggling to find work, they were preparing to drive back to Wisconsin. Remarkably, Bou Bou survived the explosion after being sped to a hospital in Atlanta. Now 4, he underwent his 15th surgery late last year, with more to come, his mother said. The payments were made through government insurance policies purchased with taxpayer funds. Phonesavanh said, has been spent on medical and legal bills.
A Habersham County grand jury issued a stinging report , but found no criminal negligence and declined to indict any of the participants.
In their closing arguments, opposing lawyers found common ground in their criticism of no-knock searches. McKinnon Jr. Read the second installment in this series. The police do not need a warrant to enter a home if they smell burning marijuana, knock, announce themselves and hear what they think is evidence being destroyed, the Supreme Court ruled, 8 to 1.
Please upgrade your browser. Site Navigation Site Mobile Navigation. It landed in a portable playpen. The playpen where a flash-bang grenade landed during a raid in Cornelia, Ga. The heat singed away much of the pillow and dissolved the mesh side of the playpen. Show of Force.
As the police broke down his door in , Todd Blair emerged from his bedroom with a golf club.
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He was shot to death five seconds after the first ram at his front door. About the Data A full list of fatalities resulting from forcible-entry search warrant raids from to , tallied by The Times, along with demographic details. Officers entered the home of Louise Milan, 68, in Evansville, Ind. His wife woke him when she saw shadowy figures in the yard. He grabbed his rifle.
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The deputies fired 71 times in seven seconds, hitting him more than 20 times. He never fired, and no drugs were found. The New York Times. Bounkham Phonesavanh, who was known as Baby Bou Bou, in the hospital with injuries sustained from the flash-bang grenade. The Eroding Exclusionary Rule How the law concerning search and seizure and no-knock warrants has evolved. Weeks v. United States.
Miller v. Wilson v. Richards v. Hudson v. No-knock warrants are routinely granted. Not granted, but forcible entries allowed under exigent circumstances. Police must announce themselves. Not routinely granted, but forcible entry allowed under exigent circumstances. Police must announce. The closet Iyanna Davis hid in as the police raided her home in in Hempstead, N. Beauregard Parish District Attorney. The SWAT concept was pioneered in Los Angeles and a few other big cities in the late s and early s in response to urban rioting and raging firefights.
There is no knock on the door, just the sound of a SWAT team smashing through it.